CLOUDS OVER TARIFS: THE ILLUSION OF NEGOTIATION

FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH - N°18 
Paloma's travel diary 
Dear Readers,

Just back from Brussels, Paris, Salzburg, and Athens it feels like the future is arriving faster than any train. Inspired by "Terminator” (1984), this edition looks at who really controls the battlefield at the latest round of global trade talks: namely, not the negotiators, but the invisible digital clouds and the energy grids they depend on.

The World Right Now:

“If A Machine, A Terminator, Can Learn the Value of Human Life, Maybe We Can, Too.”

Before we discuss the Terminator metaphor, here’s some facts and figures to illustrate the US cloud dominance:

• The US is the undisputed superpower in the global digital cloud, with American tech giants holding the keys to innovation, development, and even sovereignty in AI and quantum computing.
• US-based companies (AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) together command over 60% of the global cloud infrastructure market. AWS alone has nearly 30%; Microsoft Azure hovers around 22-23%; Google Cloud at about 12%.
• North America’s cloud market is set to reach $474 billion in 2025—by far the largest globally.
• Cloud infrastructure is the backbone for AI and quantum computing. This makes most countries’ ability to develop and run any advanced technologies deeply dependent on US cloud providers.

The Data: Cloud & Energy by the Numbers

Key insights:

• US cloud and data centre infrastructure is not just dominant in terms of market share but also require an unprecedented share the energy grid resources to power the AI and quantum revolution.
• Worldwide data centre energy consumption is set to more than double by 2030, driven primarily by US-based infrastructure to support AI and quantum workloads.
• The transition to renewables is accelerating, but nearly half of current energy still comes from fossil fuels — making cheap, diverse US domestic energy sources a huge strategic asset, especially compared to Europe and Asia.
  
  

What does Europe have on offer?

The European Union (EU) aims at developing its own secure and competitive cloud infrastructure as part of its broader strategy for digital sovereignty, i.a., through:

• GAIA-X (2019), a federated data infrastructure to ensure interoperability, transparency, and data protection. Openness and the ability for users to switch providers are meant to reduce reliance on US giants.
• The European Alliance for Industrial Data, Edge and Cloud (2021) to coordinate Member State, industry, and stakeholder investments and support the development of next-generation cloud and edge infrastructure. 
• The Digital Europe Programme and the Connecting Europe Facility, tender-based funding instruments to create cross-border cloud infrastructures and services.

The New Rules of the Game – Terminator?

“Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there! It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop... ever, until you are dead!”

• The US can block innovation, restrict exports, or limit access to critical AI and quantum tools via the cloud.
• Energy independence increasingly means "cloud independence" — no country can claim to be technologically sovereign without a viable domestic alternative for cloud infrastructure and the power to fuel it.
• Europe’s and Asia’s dream of strategic autonomy is an illusion if all critical tech is plugged into US-controlled clouds. For starters, are current EU initiatives at all feasible without relying on US capacity?
  
  

Final Word

“It Doesn’t Feel Pity, Or Remorse, Or Fear, And It Absolutely Will Not Stop, Ever, Until You Are Dead!”

In this "Terminator" future, it’s not European negotiators or the politicians who hold the cards, but the owners of the code — and the power lines underneath. 

We can pretend to negotiate, but unless we build our own cloud infrastructure and secure our own energy sources to fuel it, we’re all just living in someone else’s simulation.

Do we have the stamina and objective means to get real?