THE ART OF WAR BY URSULA AND KAMALA

Sector
GEOPOLITICAL
Published at 30/09/2024

FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH - N°13
Paloma's travel diary

Dear readers,
I have somehow abandoned you for a month... not that I have been lingering, but after being drenched for 5 hours overlooking the Seine river, at the Trocadéro seats of the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics, I reckon I needed some time to recover. As Roy Batty famously put it:

I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser gate. All those moments will be lost in time... like tears in rain.”* 

My journey this month has taken me to Strasbourg, where I saw Queen Ursula being anointed and then dispatch her letters of mandate to the Knights of her Commission Round Table; to Madrid, where I found Spain's GDP to have risen to the top of the EU; and to Greece, where the forces of the country voted number one by the Economist in 2023 have failed the government in the European Parliament elections but strengthened their power in Brussels. In Paris, I heard the call for dismissing a Jupiterian Macron who has, counter-intuitively, been abandoned by the gods and seen his power within the EU wane, watched with amazement Kamala Harris’s resurrection while Trump is dealing with attempts of assassination every two days; and noted that Melania stands ready with her impeccable two-piece suits a la Jackie O. 

The movie that inspires us this month is The Godfather, top at capturing the essence of the Art of War. 

My conclusion: I have been re-reading The Art of War to follow the vision of those two maverick ladies, Ursula von der Leyen and Kamala Harris. And I am more than ever convinced that how to win without going to war is a lesson that we all need to take into account. So, let's take a look at the basics of the art of war, try to apply these to the current conflicts and see what we all can do. 

What if we start with ... 

So, let us look at such basic teachings of The Art of War (for instance, never let anyone know what you're thinking." - Michael Corleone’s go at Sun Tzu's principles), as exemplified by our political Godfathers:

  • Laying Plans: Von der Leyen's strategic mandates and their description in letters to would-be Commissioners.
  • Waging War: Harris's calculated political resurrection.
  • Attack by Stratagem: The EU's economic leverage over Member States.
  • Tactical Dispositions: Greece's strengthened position in Brussels
  • Energy: Trump's constant battles depleting his reserves.
  • Balancing weak points and strong points: Spain's focus on internal economic strengths.
  • Manoeuvering: The EU's preference for sanctions over military action.
     

What’s up in Brussels? 

"It's not personal, Sonny. It's strictly business." - Michael Corleone 

 

Queen Ursula's coronation was a masterclass in political manoeuvering. Her dispatch of mandate letters to the Commission Chevaliers would make Don Corleone proud. The upcoming commissioners' hearings before the European Parliament promise to be as tense as a sit-down between the Five Families.  

What’s up in Poland and Spain?  

"This is the business we've chosen." - Hyman Roth 

Meanwhile, Poland's political forces, once economic saviours, have fortified their Brussels stronghold, proving they know how to play both sides of the fence. And, not to forget, Hola Spain's ascension to the EU throne of the highest GDP growth is credited with the nicest EU-Commission VP portfolio of the lot... 

Regulatory Basics... 

"A lawyer with his briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns." - Vito Corleone 

European campaign regulations were being tested as von der Leyen set the tone for her re-election bid. Large countries and major political parties are pushing for more flexibility in cross-border campaigning, reminiscent of the Corleone family's expansion across State lines. 

...and Business Basics

Basics on business: "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse." 

Cost of current open conflicts: 

  • Israel/Hezbollah: The Gaza war and its Lebanese ramification has so far cost the Israeli economy over $67.3 billion.
  • Ukraine/Russia: The war has to date cost Russia some $211 billion in military expenditure. 

These figures would make even Hyman Roth pause and think. 

In my humble opinion 

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment." - Michael Corleone 

 

On the grand chessboard of European and global politics, leaders like Ursula von der Leyen and Kamala Harris are mastering the art of making offers that can't be refused. Not through brute force or threats, but through carefully crafted strategies, alliances, and leveraging of soft power.  

They are proving that in today's complex political landscape, the most effective way to win is not through outright conflict, but by creating situations where your opponents find it impossible to decline your propositions. This approach reflects the sophisticated application of Sun Tzu's principles in modern governance and diplomacy. It's about winning without fighting, achieving objectives through strategy rather than force, and understanding your opponents so well that victory is assured before the battle even begins. As we watch the political drama unfold across Europe and beyond, remember: the true masters of the game aren't those who shout the loudest or throw their weight around, but those who, like a skilful godfather, can make offers that simply cannot be refused. 

*While this edition is inspired by the movie The Godfather, a practical treatise of sorts on the art of war, I could not forego a reference to Blade Runner... 

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